Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market by Jim Rogers

Author:Jim Rogers
Language: eng
Format: mobi, pdf
ISBN: 9781588364470
Publisher: Random House Publishing Group
Published: 2004-12-27T14:00:00+00:00

IMPERIAL AMBITIONS?

Historically, empires have looked around for opportunities in the world and taken them, usually through force of arms. At a time when the U.S. has adopted a policy of preemptive strikes, it is understandable for some people to worry that China might decide that it may be a lot cheaper to occupy a country than to buy its exports. Already, some have suggested that China is bound to be setting its sights on the Middle East. China is already the No. 2 consumer of oil in the world, and it is just a matter of time before it becomes No. 1. Will China decide that it wants to occupy an oil country? It already has oil interests in Sudan—and troops there protecting them. China’s neighbors in Central Asia also apparently have lots of oil.

And then there’s the problem of Taiwan’s independence, any prospect of which seems to rile the otherwise rational Chinese into fits of hysteria. The current Taiwanese president is doing his best to provoke the mainland further for his own political reasons. He may shoot himself—and the rest of us—in the foot. Chinese generals have already threatened to regain Taiwan by force—foreign investment, economic growth, and the Olympics be damned. Consumed with concern about “weapons of mass destruction” in the Middle East or North Korea, U.S. politicians seem to have forgotten Beijing’s 500 warheads aimed straight at Taiwan, an island only 100 miles away from the Chinese mainland. Taiwan’s security blanket—that the U.S. would rush to its aid—turned a bit scratchy when U.S. forces were stretched in the Middle East, followed by reports from Washington that the Pentagon believed Beijing’s forces could seize the island before the Americans could ride to the rescue.

I myself doubt that the Chinese government will wage war unless provoked. Throughout history, the Chinese have not been a very aggressive people, and my bet is that they are even less aggressive now. In 1980, the leadership initiated a national policy rewarding couples for limiting their families to one child. This one-child policy was terminated in 2002, but the damage was done. Tens of millions of families are likely to resist sending their only child or grandchild off to war.

That doesn’t mean China won’t avoid domestic violence or disruption. Plenty of variables could send the country straight toward more prosperity or on a more circuitous route to economic dominance—via labor unrest and peasant revolts, a military coup d’état, or outright civil war. To distract people from those problems, the Chinese may try to stir up tensions with Taiwan. I am dumbfounded that Taiwan and the mainland would pursue such a dangerous course. If they would only combine Taiwan’s expertise and capital with the mainland’s labor and markets, they would have an economic powerhouse. Unfortunately, history is full of politicians making absurd mistakes and leading countries into disastrous wars.

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